摘要
20 世纪 90 年代以来，全球经济一体化的趋势不断加强，在国际金融领域建立区域货币联盟成为大的趋势。2008 年，美国次贷危机引发的全球经济动荡掀起了重构国际货币体系的浪潮，美元本位制受到冲击，区域货币合作及寻找区域内稳定性驻锚的进程加速。当前，内地已成为香港、澳门、台湾的最大贸易伙伴，“两岸四地”经贸、人员往来日益频繁，双边或多边合作的广度与深度不断延伸，当前的“一国四币”格局衍生的汇率风险、外汇风险等日益凸显，有必要重新审视和研究当前货币格局的合理性。
本文首先对国内外关于货币合作、货币联盟及最优货币区形成与发展的研究成果进行了综述，分析了“两岸四地”货币合作框架下的相关理论。其次，在最优货币区理论研究基础上，对最优货币区的理论机理与相关实践进行了总结。再次，从实际情况出发，归纳出“两岸四地”在地缘、人缘、经贸往来等方面优势条件，以及当前面临的制度差异、政治障碍等方面困难，综合分析“两岸四地”构建最优货币区的内在氛围。然后，文章在相关研究基础上，以最优货币区理论为基础，对“两岸四地”市场开放度、金融一体化程度、构建最优货币区的成本与效益进行分析，运用结构向量自回归模型和货币锚效应模型分别对“两岸四地”的经济冲击对称性条件和现实货币锚定程度进行实证分析。最后，提出“两岸四地”最优货币区基本构想，总结结论。
研究结论显示，“两岸四地”已经具备了构建最优货币区的部分条件，经济开放程度、金融一体化程度等方面差距逐渐缩小，整体收益要大于整体成本。同时，在面对经济冲击时，“两岸四地”整体上也表现出一定的对称性，港澳台币对人民币的隐性锚定程度在加强，对构建最优货币区而言都具有显着的正面作用。
关键词：两岸四地；最优货币区；SVAR 模型；货币锚；实现路径
Abstract
Since the 1990s, the trend of global economic integration gets continuously strengthened,and it becomes a common trend to establish regional monetary union. In 2008, the US subprimemortgage crisis triggered the turmoil of the global economic and set off a wave of reconstructionof the international monetary system. The dollar standard gets shocked. At the same time, itaccelerates the process of regional monetary cooperation and exploring the stable anchor.
Currently, the Chinese mainland has become the largest trading partner of Hong Kong, Macaoand Taiwan, the Four Regions of Cross-Straits trade and personnel exchanges become morefrequent, the breadth and depth of bilateral or multilateral cooperation constantly extends.Thecurrent “one country, four currency” pattern implies increasingly prominent exchange rate riskand foreign exchange risk.It is necessary to re-examine and study on the rationality of the currentmonetary situation.
Firstly, this paper reviews the domestic and external research on international monetarycooperation, monetary union, the formation and development of optimal currency area ,andanalyzes relative theory under the framework of the Four Regions of Cross-Straits; Secondly, Onthe basis of the optimal currency area theory study, this paper summarizes the mechanism of theoptimum currency area theory and related example .Thirdly, this paper sums up some advantagesat the geographic , popularity, economic and trade exchanges, and some facing difficultieslike the institutional difference and political obstacles .Then this paper analyzes comprehensivelythe inner atmosphere of constructing the optimal currency area for the the Four Regions ofCross-Straits. Thirdly, this paper sums up some advantages at the geographic , popularity,economic and trade exchanges, and some facing difficulties like the institutional difference andpolitical obstacles .Then this paper analyzes comprehensively the inner atmosphere ofconstructing the optimal currency area for the the Four Regions of Cross-Straits. Fourthly,based on the optimal currency area theory and related research, this paper analyzes the marketopenness, the degree of financial integration, the cost and benefits of building an optimalcurrency area. Then the empirical analysis analyzes the economic impact of symmetryconditions and real degree of monetary anchor though a structural vector auto regression modeland monetary anchor effect model . Finally, this paper puts forward some basic conceptions forconstructing the optimal currency area , summarizes the conclusions.
The study concluded that, it already has been provided with some conditions, like economicopenness, the degree of financial integration, to construct optimal currency area. Such gaps aregradually reduced , and the overall revenue is greater than the overall cost. Meanwhile, the FourRegions of Cross-Straits also performs overall a certain symmetry facing economic shocks, andHKD, Macanese pataca ,TWD performs strengthened on tacit anchoring degree for RMB to,which in terms of constructing optimal currency area has a significant positive effect.
Key Words:Four Regions of Cross-Straits; the structure vector auto regressive （SVAR） model;optimum currency area ; currency anchor effect;achievement path
目录
摘要
Abstract
目录
1 导论
1.1.选题依据与研究意义
1.2.研究思路与及内容安排
2 国内外研究综述
2.1 国外研究综述
2.2 国内研究综述
2.3 现有研究评述
3 相关概念与理论基础
3.1 相关概念
3.2 理论基础
4 最优货币区的理论机理与应用研究
4.1 最优货币区形成的渊源与依据
4.2 最优货币区的内涵与功能特征
4.3 最优货币区的演化与发展
4.4 欧盟构建最优货币区的经验与启示
5 “两岸四地”构建最有货币区的优势条件与面临困难分析
5.1 “两岸四地”构建最有货币区的优势条件
5.2“两岸四地”构建最优货币区面临的困难
6 “两岸四地”构建最优货币区的实证研究
6.1“两岸四地”市场开放度和金融一体化的实证分析
6.2“两岸四地”货币合作条件的检验
6.3“两岸四地”构建最优货币区的成本与效益分析
6.4 港澳台货币对人民币的货币锚定分析
7 两岸四地“最优货币区”的基本构想
7.1“两岸四地”构建最优货币区的目标
7.2“两岸四地”构建最优货币区的路径
7.3“两岸四地”构建最优货币区的策略
8 本文的基本结论、主要创新和进一步研究方向
8.1 结论
8.2 创新之处
8.3 不足之处与进一步研究方向
参考文献
致谢
