人口老龄化对中国未来宏观经济的影响是温和的(5)

　　
　　6、反思与启示。
　　
　　目前，国内学者对于人口老龄化对中国宏观经济的影响并不确定，但普遍持有悲观的态度，认为人口老龄化会抑制中国社会经济的发展。在美国国家科学研究委员会的报告发布后，我国也有学者就老龄化对未来中国宏观经济的影响进行了深入的分析，得出了与美国国家科学研究委员会相似的结论，即人口老龄化对中国未来宏观经济的影响是温和的，并不是灾难性的（ 陈彦斌，2014b）。人口老龄化对于未来的挑战更多的是一个社会问题，而不只是一个经济问题。
　　
　　人口老龄化是一个全球性的问题，在某些程度上各国所面临的挑战具有一定的共性。就中国老龄化对宏观经济的影响而言，目前尚不确定。但是，2012年美国国家科学研究委员会的报告可以给我们提供很好的研究思路与方法，可将宏观经济的影响因子（ 人口健康状况、劳动参与率、劳动生产率、发明创新、储蓄、退休保障、投资回报率等） 纳入到中国老龄化问题的研究中，并结合中国当前的社会、经济状况，就人口老龄化对未来中国宏观经济的影响进行深入详细的研究，以期更好地应对人口老龄化所带来的巨大挑战。
　　
　　美国国家科学研究委员会在2012年发布的报告中，就人口老龄化带来的影响聚焦于其对宏观经济的影响，从而剥离于其可能带来的其他错综复杂的影响，从而使研究主题更加明确，能够更加深入地就人口老龄化可能带来的经济问题进行层层剖析，逐一回答人口老龄化对每一个经济因子的影响。在对每一个经济因子的研究中，运用了多种合适恰当的方法，更加侧重于老龄化对宏观经济的长期影响，这使得研究更加具有科学性和针对性。报告通过美国自身不同时期历史数据的对比以及世界各国数据的对比分析，从历史、国际、体制等多视角，探究了人口老龄化对宏观经济长期影响的关系和规律，这将对中国老龄化问题的研究具有重要的借鉴意义。
　　
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