本篇论文目录导航：
【题目】环境污染与经济发展的关系探究
【第一章】环境污染与经济建设的相互作用绪论
【第二章】环境经济描述统计分析
【第三章】河北省环境经济关联规则分析
【第四章】各行业环境经济回归分析
【第五章】河北省改善环境及促进经济发展对策建议
【总结/参考文献】环境污染与经济协调发展研究总结与参考文献
摘 要
2014年3月，李克强（中国国务院总理）在作政府工作报告时指出，要加强环渤海地区以及京津冀地区的经济协作。***（总书记）曾在听取关于北京、天津及河北地区的协同友好发展工作的汇报时强调，务必要实现三个地区的协同友好的发展是一个主要的国家性的战略，这必须要坚持做到各个地区优势上的互补、贯彻落实互利共赢以及扎实推进的方针，加快步伐走出一条能够科学发展可持续发展并且协同发展的路子。《京津冀蓝皮书：京津冀发展报告（2013）--承载力测度与对策》（中国社科院和首都经贸大学联合发布）[1],称北京的综合承载力已处于危机状态，天津已达警戒线，河北的发展空间有限。关于环境污染和经济状况的协调发展问题始终困扰着各界政府机关。针对京津冀要实现一体化的发展方向，这无疑会给河北省的环境状况以及经济发展带来更大机遇和挑战。
本文以河北省为例，基于2012年河北省各行业环境污染及经济发展数据，首先对河北省各行业环境经济数据进行描述性统计分析，了解目前环境污染以及经济发展现状，确定研究数据指标。然后采用数据挖掘中关联规则 GRI 算法分析环境污染和经济发展之间的相互作用关系，了解二者之间存在的作用机制。最后运用聚类分析方法区分工业各行业，使用逐步回归模型确定环境污染指标经济发展各指标之间的关系。最后针对上述所作分析得出的结论，提出河北省环境污染和经济指标协同发展的对策建议。
通过分析发现在河北省工业各行业中一直延续着高污染高产值的状况，但是环境污染与利润之间的关系在逐步接近 EKC 假说，环境污染特别大的行业利润高的态势也在逐渐缩小；工业“三废”对于经济指标的发展存在巨大的影响。本文针对以上问题逐一提出对策建议，如果可以找到一条更加适合环境经济发展的道路，不仅可以更好地推动我省经济发展，促进环境改善，还可以为具有类似问题的省份提供依据，也可以更好的落实“京津冀一体化”的发展战略。
关键词：环境污染 经济发展 GRI 建模 逐步回归
Abstract
The Chinese premier li keqiang points out that strengthening the bohai sea and thebeijing-tianjin-hebei region economy collaboration.when the government work report onMarch 5,2014. Xi jinping, the general secretary in to hear reports on the coordinateddevelopment of beijing-tianjin-hebei work stress, realize the coordinated development ofbeijing-tianjin-hebei is a major national strategy, to insist on the complementary advantages,mutual benefit and win-win results, made solid progress, speed up out of a science ongoingcollaborative development path. In view of the “integration of the beijing-tianjin-hebeiregion” will undoubtedly brings to the environment and economic development in hebeiprovince greater opportunities and challenges. Jointly issued by the Chinese academy ofsocial sciences and the capital economic and trade university in beijing-tianjin-hebei bluebook: the bearing capacity of beijing-tianjin-hebei development report （2013） measure andthe countermeasure, the comprehensive bearing capacity of the said Beijing has entered into astate of crisis, has reached a cordon of tianjin, hebei development space is limited. Forenvironment coordinated economic development problem has always been plagued bygovernment agencies from all walks of life.
Taking hebei province as an example, based on the data industry pollution of theenvironment and economic development in hebei province in 2012, the first industryenvironment economic data of hebei province by descriptive statistical analysis,understanding of the present status of the pollution of the environment and economicdevelopment, determine the research data. Then the GRI algorithm in data mining associationrules analysis interaction relationship between environmental pollution and economicdevelopment, in between is to understand the mechanism of action. Finally using theclustering analysis method to distinguish the industrial industries, using stepwise regressionmodel to determine the environmental pollution index each index of the relationship betweeneconomic development. Finally based on analysis, environment coordinated development ofeconomy in hebei province countermeasures and Suggestions are put forward.Continuesthrough the analysis found in the industrial industry in hebei province with high pollutionoutput condition, but the relationship between environmental pollution and profits ingradually close to the EKC hypothesis, environmental pollution especially big profits highsituation has also been gradually narrow; Industrial “three wastes” has had a huge impact inthe development of economy. Study environment in hebei province economy exists betweena series of problems to be solved, including: the industrial structure adjustment, highpollution industry, regulation punishment policy establishment, “three wastes” treatment etc.
The above questions one by one, the author of this paper put forward countermeasures andSuggestions, if you can find a more suitable for the environment of economic developmentway, not only can better promote the economic development in our province, to promoteenvironmental improvement, also can provide basis for the province has a similar problem,also can better implement the development strategy of “integration of thebeijing-tianjin-hebei region”.
Key Words:Environmental pollution Economic development GRI modeling Stepwiseregression
目 录
中文摘要
英文摘要
1 绪论
1.1 选题背景
1.1.1 历史事件
1.1.2 “雾霾”肆虐
1.1.3 污染治理
1.1.4 经济发展
1.2 选题意义
1.3 国内外研究现状
1.3.1 国外研究现状
1.3.2 国内研究现状
1.4 研究思路与方法
1.5 研究框架
1.6 创新点
2 环境经济描述统计分析
2.1 环境污染物描述统计分析
2.1.1 河北省环境污染情况概述
2.1.2 工业行业“三废”污染物排放情况
2.1.3 环境污染描述统计总结
2.2 经济指标描述统计分析
3 河北省环境经济关联规则分析
3.1 理论基础
3.2 建模过程与分析
3.2.1 数据合并处理
3.2.2 变量前后项设定
3.2.3 建立模型
3.2.4 模型结果及分析
4 各行业环境经济回归分析
4.1 各行业间聚类分析
4.1.1 聚类分析算法原理介绍
4.1.2 各行业聚类分析实证
4.2 环境经济回归分析
4.2.1 逐步回归理论基础
4.2.2 逐步回归实证分析
5 河北省改善环境及促进经济发展对策建议
5.1 产业结构调整的对策建议
5.2 高污染行业治理对策建议
5.3 工业“三废”处理的对策建议
6 存在不足及研究展望
6.1 全文总结
6.2 存在不足及今后研究方向
6.2.1 存在不足
6.2.2 今后研究方向
参考文献
致 谢
